The Baseball Chick

Spring Training has begun and we are well on our way to another Fantasy Baseball season.  But don’t be a jackass, everyone knows who the big prospects are for this year.  So before you walk into your draft this year with this big secret smile on your face thinking that you have this genius information that no one else in the league could even fathom having, chug on some icy cold reality.  And for the turds that don’t know, below is mlb.com’s rankings of the Top 50 Prospects for 2010:

The Major League Baseball regular season is winding down, which means fantasy baseball seasons are nearing their sad, miserable conclusions. If you are lacking the supreme drafting skills of yours truly, then I’m sure you have been frustrated with one or more of your high draft picks.  I simply wanted to point out ten guys that probably screwed a lot of fantasy teams in 2009.

1.  Jose Reyes – SS – New York Mets - 147 ab, .279 avg, 2 hr, 15 rbi, 11 sb

As a top three pick in most fantasy leagues, Jose Reyes had the hopes of many managers resting on his shoulders. Reyes was projected to steal 50+ bases this season while potentially improving on his power numbers in the stacked Mets lineup. However, injuries derailed these lofty hopes and in turn derailed the chances of many a fantasy baseball team unfortunate enough to draft him. Top Bust.

2.  Brad Lidge – P – Philadelphia Phillies – 25 sv, 30 op, 6.90 era, 1.77 whip

In 2008, Brad Lidge did not blow a save and finished with a 1.95 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Fantasy owners may not have been expecting perfection, but they were not expecting eight blown saves and an ERA closer to ten than two. Some of his problems can be blamed on the knee injury, but more likely than not Lidge has just lost it. This sad sack of shit is a major headcase.  Lidge has the mental fortitude of the scarecrow from The Wizard of Oz . Additionally, this is not the first time his confidence has been severely shaken, as the mammoth blast he gave up to Albert Pujols in the playoffs a few years back began a quick downward spiral for him that many may remember. He recovered from that last year, but seems to have fallen back into the funk and I’m not so sure that he’ll be able to get out of it this time. It should be noted that I love this guy though; he makes me giggle.  Bust.

3.  David Wright – 3b – New York Mets – 426 ab, .324 avg, 8 hr, 55 rbi, 24 sb

David Wright came into the 2009 season #1 on many people’s draft boards. He combines power and speed with a high average. Whether it’s the new pitcher-friendly Citi Field or the injuries to the power bats behind him in the line-up, David Wright just does not have his power this year. With his high average draft position and due to the fact he was projected by most to hit over 30 homeruns, Wright definitely qualifies as a bust for 2009.

4. Alfonso Soriano – OF – Chicago Cubs – 459 ab, .240 avg, 19 hr, 52 rbi, 9 sb

Soriano was a mid to late first round pick in most fantasy drafts in 2009. Most projected him to hit over 30 homeruns and steal over 20 bases. He fell in some drafts due to his diminishing speed, but the power should have remained. He has never been a player to help a team average, but he has also never batted below .268 in his career. The season is not quite over yet, but it appears that Soriano will not even reach 25 homers, will struggle to steal even his tenth bag, and will finish with an average below .250.  However, his “skip-and-catch” approach in left field is in peak form and it makes him look like a pretty ballerina. Bust.

5. Chris Davis – 1b – Texas Rangers – 258 ab, .202 avg, 15 hr, 33 rbi, 0 sb

Chris Davis may have been the top “sleeper” pick (that everyone knew about) in 2009. Projected to reach 30 homers and 100 RBIs while qualifying at both corner infield spots, Davis was primed for a big year. Unfortunately, strikeouts and an early season slump knocked him off course and even landed him back in the minors. Since his early season hype bumped him way up draft boards, Davis is most definitely a bust.

6. Garrett Atkins – 3b – Colorado Rockies – 298 ab, .225 avg, 8 hr, 39 rbi, 0 sb

Garrett Atkins came into 2009 with three straight 20 plus homerun and 99 plus RBI seasons. The lowest he batted in the last three years was .286. A guy is entitled to an off year, but having less than 10 homers and 39 RBIs with a .225 batting average in only 298 at bats is just plain horrific. Yes, he had distractions such as the trade rumors and Ian Stewart breathing down his neck, but he had been the definition of consistency for three straight years. Garrett Atkins makes it hard to ever trust him again, much like every other man in my life. Bust.

7. Chris Young – OF – Arizona Diamondbacks – 315 ab, .194 avg, 7 hr, 28 rbi, 11 sb

Much like the Arizona Diamondbacks’ season, Chris Young has been a major disappointment. Many thought that this year would be his breakout year. Young has 20/20, perhaps even 30/30, potential, but he just cannot stop striking out. He is down in the minors right now killing the ball, but has not shown that he can consistently hit at the major league level. A smart manager would probably bat him fifth or sixth because his on-base skills are not those of a major league lead-off hitter.  This guy sucks. Chris Young is nothing but a bust.

8. Rick Ankiel – OF – St. Louis Cardinals – 308 ab, .234 avg, 10 hr, 34 rbi, 2 sb

Rick Ankiel was one of the best “feel-good” stories of 2008. He accomplished the rare feat of transitioning from major league pitcher to major league position player. With a big bat and a cannon for an arm, Ankiel was the talk of every ballpark he visited. However, his lack of mental toughness was the reason for his breakdown and subsequent transition. The pressure of being a major league pitcher brought about one of the worst meltdowns in MLB history. Now in his second full year as a major league hitter, he is starting to come back down to earth and we will see if he is still a mental weakling. He has battled some injuries this season, but fantasy owners who drafted him looking for power don’t want to hear the excuses.  Everyone was prepared to take a hit in average, but 10 homers in 300 at bats equals a 2009 fantasy bust.  The only thing he had going for him was his 1970s-circa policeman’s mustache, and he shaved that off too.  Therefore, he is worthless.

9. Magglio Ordonez – OF – Detroit Tigers – 351 ab, .274 avg, 7 hr, 37 rbi, 3 sb

A drop off for Magglio Ordonez was to be expected as he is now 35 years old, but after a 2008 in which he hit .317 with 21 homers and 103 RBIs, the drop off was not expected to be this severe. Mags has heated up a bit in August, but he is still three homers shy of double digits and one good month is not going to be enough to save his fantasy owners. Bottom-line, Mags is a bust.

10. Cole Hamels – P – Philadelphia Phillies – 139.1 inn, 7 wins, 4.78 era, 1.35 whip, 119 Ks

A lot of fantasy owners suspected that Cole Hamels may be a bust in 2009 because of the injury risk he presented.  After all, in the 2008 season, Hamels pitched a staggering 227 innings. Nobody considered the notion that he could be a bust while being totally healthy, but that is exactly what happened (and is happening) this season. At first the assumption was that it was simply rust following some injuries in spring training, but now it’s just silly. Cole Hamels has been consistently mediocre in 2009 and because of his high average draft position, he is a total bust.  In punishment, I think that his super-hot wife should dump his ass and take up with Cliff Lee.  Cole Hamels and his stupid mid-90s hair need a serious slump buster.

Dishonorable Mention

Jay Bruce – OF – Cincinnati Reds -  299 ab, .207 avg, 18 hr, 41 rbi, 3 sb

Alex Gordon – 3b – Kansas City Royals -  96 ab, .198 avg, 3 hr, 11 rbi, 4 sb

J.J. Hardy – SS – Milwaukee Brewers -  371 ab, .245 avg, 11 hr, 45 rbi, 0 sb

The 2009 NFL and Fantasy Football seasons are right around the corner, so The Baseball Chick is here with some position battles to keep an eye on this preseason:

1.  Chiefs No. 1 Running Back – Larry Johnson vs. Jamaal Charles

Coach Todd Haley has opened the Chiefs’ tailback job to competition, refusing to name a starter to open camp.  Even practice-squad back Jackie Battle is getting run with the first team.  Battle isn’t under serious consideration, but Charles is a threat to L.J. because of his receiving skills.  Haley often used a pass-heavy spread attack while coordinating in Arizona, and Charles played in a spread at the University of Texas.  If Johnson’s power and speed have returned as Haley has suggested, however, Kansas City will employ plenty of power running formations.  This is L.J.’s job to lose.

2. Cardinals No. 1 Running Back – Tim Hightower vs. Chris Wells

This battle is already beginning to take shape.  Wells is out with an ankle sprain and will likely miss the Arizona Cardinals’ exhibition opener.  Nagging, minor injuries are nothing new for the first-round pick from Ohio State, and Beanie needed these practices to convince coach Ken Whisenhunt that he could hold up as a feature back.  It’s still early and Wells’ remarkable talent (4.4 speed at 6′1/230) should take over eventually, but Hightower is the best bet to start Week 1 at this point.

3. Vikings No. 2 Wide Receiver – Sidney Rice vs. Percy Harvin vs. Bobby Wade

This is really a Rice-Harvin race.  Wade is a reliable slot guy and special teamer, but an exorbitant $2.95 million salary (and questionable mental toughness) could quietly have Mr. Excitement on the roster bubble, even after Aundrae Allison’s release.  A borderline dominant red-zone threat when healthy, Rice looks to be over his 2008 knee troubles but has been up and down early in camp.  Meanwhile, Harvin is the talk of Mankato.  Even if Rice wins the “starting” job, Harvin will be a better bet for receptions.

4. Raiders No. 1 Running Back – Justin Fargas vs. Darren McFadden

Michael Bush is involved here, but will likely end up as the No. 2 back by season’s end no matter who wins the first-team job.  Fargas is the incumbent and seeing most of the reps with Oakland’s starters early.  The staff likes his banging style and blitz-pickup skills, but McFadden is the back to own in fantasy.  If he overtakes Fargas by late August, he’ll be an even better bet for touches.

5. Buccaneers No. 1 Running Back – Earnest Graham vs. Derrick Ward

The Bucs say this will be an even rotation, but Graham and Ward’s skill sets are similar, so it isn’t like one would be an ideal “change of pace” for the other.  Tampa Bay may just wind up riding the hot hand, meaning preseason play will be key.  Ward has more experience running behind zone blocks, which the Giants often used when he was subbing for Brandon Jacobs over the last two seasons, and new Bucs coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski is installing a full-blown zone system.  Graham is the first-team back right now, but my bet is on Ward finishing 2009 with more touches.

6. Broncos No. 1 Running Back – Knowshon Moreno vs. Correll Buckhalter vs. LaMont Jordan

Longer shots Ryan Torain and fullback Peyton Hillis have been sharp early in camp, but it probably won’t be enough once Moreno gets familiar with the offense.  Buckhalter, who is 31 and was injury prone earlier in his career, has been in and out of practice with minor injuries.  That’s led to a lot of first-team work for Jordan.  Coach Josh McDaniels isn’t afraid to use a heavy committee, so Moreno needs to learn quickly to be an early-season fantasy asset.  Fantasy players may want to try and avoid this mess altogether.

 7. Giants No. 1 Wide Receiver – Steve Smith vs. Domenick Hixon vs. Hakeem Nicks

Smith may never be a “No. 1″ because he doesn’t play big enough to be a high-scoring red-zone weapon or fast enough down the field to be a true deep threat, but he is the Giants’ lone receiver assured of a starting role.  With Mario Manningham and speedy underneath guy Sinorice Moss also competing, New York has the guns to go receiver-by-committee.  Nicks will really have to come on and bypass Hixon this preseason to be an every-down player in his first year.

8. Ravens No. 1 Running Back – Willis McGahee vs. Ray Rice vs. LeRon McClain

This one looks pretty clear already.  McGahee underwent two leg surgeries this spring and Rice has gotten all the first-team carries since OTAs.  The Baltimore Ravens appear to be headed away from last year’s matchup-based three-headed monster, giving Rice a shot to emerge as a true featured carrier.  Cam Cameron says McClain is the favorite for goal-line work, but that could change if reports of Rice’s improved lower-body strength translate to short-yardage drills.

9. Vikings No. 1 Quarterback – Sage Rosenfels vs. Tarvaris Jackson

With Brett Favre out of the picture for now, Jackson and Rosenfels entered training camp on equal footing.  That changed quickly when Jackson sprained his MCL and missed four days of practice.  Four days (eight practices) might not seem like a whole lot, but showing durability was essential in Jackson’s case.  He suffered a sprained MCL last season as well has battled multiple injuries as a pro.

10. 49ers No. 1 Wide Receiver – Isaac Bruce vs. Josh Morgan vs. Michael Crabtree

Crabtree’s agents aren’t messing around and his holdout appears capable of lasting deep into the preseason or perhaps even on into Week 1.  Morgan can play all three positions (flanker, split end, slot), but the San Francisco 49ers prefer him at split end where he can run deeper routes on the weak side of the field.  Bruce has been a flanker his entire career.  It’s probably going to be Morgan and Bruce lining up with the Niners’ first team on opening day.

The Major League Baseball trade deadline has come and gone and quite a few moves have been made in the last few days that will impact fantasy baseball teams everywhere. I will cover the trades with the greatest fantasy impact, starting with:

• The San Diego Padres traded pitcher Jack Peavy to the Chicago White Sox for lefty starter, Clayton Richard, and 3 other pitching prospects. Jake Peavy is due back sometime in September and could help the White Sox make a playoff push. Clayton Richard becomes an intriguing fantasy starter in NL-only and deeper mixed leagues with this move to the spacious Petco Park.
• The Cleveland Indians traded slugging catcher/first baseman Victor Martinez to the Boston Red Sox for major league ready pitcher Justin Masterson, promising lefty Nick Hagadone, and one other prospect. The move should not impact Martinez’s fantasy value and Masterson could find his way into the Cleveland rotation very soon. Mike Lowell will probably be the biggest loser in this deal as he stands to lose some playing time.
• The Red Sox made another move, sending recently acquired first baseman Adam LaRoche to the Atlanta Braves for first baseman Casey Kotchman. LaRoche’s fantasy value should increase as he will be the Braves’ everyday first baseman. Kotchman’s value will remain largely unchanged, but Boston seems like the winner here as Kotchman is 3 years younger and has slightly better career averages.
• The Cincinatti Reds sent 3 players, including third baseman Edwin Encarnacion, to the Toronto Blue Jays for veteran third baseman Scott Rolen. Encarnacion has the potential to deliver decent offensive numbers, but the Blue Jays will suffer a large drop in defense. If Rolen’s recent power surge is not a fluke, then he will love playing at Great American Ballpark and becomes a must-add in all NL-only leagues.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers picked up lefty reliever George Sherrill from the Baltimore Orioles for prospects. This move greatly improves the Dodgers’ tired bullpen, but greatly reduces any fantasy value Sherrill had as a closer, unless your league counts holds. Early reports are saying that Jim Johnson will get first shot at closing duties in Baltimore, as was predicted by The Baseball Chick a few days ago in the Fantasy Sports Corner.
• The Detroit Tigers traded prospects to the Seattle Mariners for left-handed starter Jarrod Washburn. Washburn may see an increase in his ERA and WHIP since he was aided by a superior Mariners outfield, but he should still be a reliable fantasy starter. The Detroit Tigers now have 3 of the top 7 starting ERAs in baseball in their rotation.
• The Oakland A’s, always active at the trade deadline, dealt second baseman Orlando Cabrera to the Minnesota Twins for a prospect.  Cabrera will immediately bat second and should prove to be a nice upgrade over Nick Punto and Brendan Harriss.  The veteran should get a nice boost in runs scored batting in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.
• Surprising buyers at the deadline, with a pair of moves, the San Francisco Giants picked up former batting champ and second baseman Freddy Sanchez from the Pittsburgh Pirates for promising pitching prospect Timothy Alderson.  The Giants also added Ryan Garko, courtesy the Cleveland Indians, to replace struggling first baseman Travis Ishikawa.  Garko should see a little more playing time in San Fran and Ishikawa could lose all of his fantasy value.  Sanchez’s value should remain about the same.
• The Chicago Cubs picked up lefty set-up man John Grabow and starter Tom Gorzelanny from the Pittsburgh Pirates for starting pitcher Kevin Hart and 2 other prospects.  Grabow will help to set-up Kevin Gregg in Chicago, leaving his fantasy value largely unchanged.  It appears Matt Capps will stay the Pirates closer for the remainder of this season.
• Finally, the Florida Marlins picked up first baseman Nick Johnson from the Washington Nationals for a prospect.  Johnson’s value may take a hit in Florida unless they decide to bench Emilio Bonafacio and move Jorge Cantu to third base, opening up regular playing time for Johnson at first.

In fantasy baseball and fantasy sports, trades are a fast way to improve your team, but they can also be difficult to pull off.  The Fantasy Sports Corner at thebaseballchick.com is here to help.  The following are 5 tips that will allow you to complete the fantasy trades that could be the difference between a long, disappointing off-season and a fantasy league title.

• Know Your League

The best way to get a trade accepted is to know the people in your league.  Most of us are in leagues with friends and coworkers and chances are this is not the first season.  If this is the case, then you know your competitor’s favorite teams and players and also their usual fantasy sports strategy.  Use this to your advantage.  If Chad Billingsley is struggling but you have a Dodgers fan in your league, why not make him an offer? 

• Know Their Needs

Before making an offer, take a good look at the detailed league standings.  If you need stolen bases, don’t make an offer to another team that also needs stolen bases, it’s never gonna happen.  Need for need trades are the most likely to be accepted.

• Do Not Low-Ball

It is always a good idea to try to get a little more than you are giving, but if you offer too little you may anger the other manager.  This goes hand-in-hand with knowing your league.  Some managers will be fine if you come in too low with the first offer, they know you are just starting a conversation.  However, there are some managers that will just refuse to even listen if they feel they are being low-balled (although I’ve found that if you make a good enough offer, even someone that has said they won’t deal with you will at least take a look).

• Pay Attention To Counter-Offers

Counter-offers are a great way to see what players of yours the other manager is high on.  Once you know this, you can use those players to get the ones you want from their team.

• Timing

The majority of trades are all about timing, so always be ready to pounce.  A team lower in the standings may lose a big name player to the 15-day DL and cannot afford to go 2 weeks without the stats.  If you are in a position to wait, you should immediately try to get the big name at a discount.  If you are in a keeper league and you see a team that seems about ready to throw in the towel and start rebuilding for next season, then you want to be the first one to make an offer for the free agents and big contract players.

The Major League Baseball season is more than halfway over which means time is running out to make a run in your fantasy baseball league.  With the trade deadline approaching, now is the time to start looking at those set-up men that will inherit the closer position when teams decide to make a change.  The Fantasy Sports Corner has a list of ten potential closers for those in need of saves for the stretch run:

1.  Leo Nunez (Marlins) – 3.56 era, 1.19 whip, 13 holds, 7 saves

If Nunez is still available in your league and you are in need of saves, stop reading and go pick him up.  When closer Matt Lindstrom first went down with an injury, the Florida Marlins went to a committee of lefty Dan Meyer and righty Leo Nunez.  Nunez has emerged as the favorite by getting the last 3 save chances and converting them all.  The plan is to ease Lindstrom back into closing duties, so Nunez will have a chance for a few more saves.  If Nunez continues to pitch well and Lindstrom does not improve on his miserable first half, then the closer’s job could be handed to Nunez permanently.

2.  C.J. Wilson (Rangers) – 2.86 era, 1.27 whip, 8 holds, 10 saves

Texas Rangers closer Frank Francisco got off to a stellar start in 2009.  However, injuries and a current case of pneumonia have limited him.  When Francisco has not be available, C.J. Wilson has filled in admirably.  Wilson won’t be handed the full-time job anytime soon, but Francisco has not shown that he has trouble staying healthy.  So if you are in need of saves, C.J. Wilson is a set-up man to own.

3.  Jon Rauch (Diamondbacks) – 4.25 era, 1.35 whip, 6 holds, 2 saves

The numbers don’t look great, but Jon Rauch has really turned things around lately.  He has only allowed 3 earned runs in his last 10 innings and with the Arizona Diamondbacks looking like sellers at the trade deadline, he may get another shot to close.  There are trade rumors around current Diamondbacks closer Chad Qualls, so Rauch could be in line for some second-half saves.

4.  Ramon Troncoso (Dodgers) – 1.95 era, 1.25 whip, 10 holds, 5 saves

Los Angeles Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton is dealing with a nagging toe injury that manager Joe Torre feels could be a problem for the rest of the season.  When Broxton has been unable to pitch, set-up man Ramon Troncoso has filled in and has proven very dependable.  Broxton has done well since the All-Star break, but with a chance of missed days and a D.L. stint, Ramon Troncoso makes a nice second-half sleeper.

5.  Jim Johnson (Orioles) – 3.05 era, 1.26 whip, 14 holds, 1 save

Trade rumors are swirling around Baltimore Orioles closer George Sherrill.  The Orioles are definitely sellers and with quite a few teams showing interest there is a good chance Sherrill will be moved.  Jim Johnson would get the first crack at the closer’s job and should do just fine.  Johnson’s strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired, but the 25-year-old can be relied on to get outs.

6.  John Grabow (Pirates) – 3.65 era, 1.50 whip, 16 holds, 0 saves

Current Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps has a lot of job security and isn’t a free agent until 2012.  However, there have been some trade rumors (with the Marlins showing interest), and if he were to be moved then John Grabow would step into the closer’s role.  The Pirates have been winning some games this year, so with a Capps trade Grabow would become a solid fantasy closer.

7.  Matt Thornton (White Sox) – 2.85 era, 1.20 whip, 15 holds, 1 save

Chicago White Sox closer Bobby Jenks has given up six runs in his last four appearances.  Ozzie Guillen has been quoted as saying that Jenks will remain the closer.  His actual quote was, “He’s my closer and if people don’t want him to be my closer, don’t come to the God damn games.”  With a strong bullpen, the White Sox could look to trade Jenks or he could just pitch himself out of a job.  If either of these things happen, Matt Thornton should get first shot at the closer’s role.

8.  Joe Beimel (Nationals) – 3.35 era, 1.33 whip, 10 holds, 1 save

Mike MacDougal is surprisingly doing a fine job closing games for a struggling (to say the least) Washington Nationals baseball team.  However, Manager Jim Riggleman has said that he wants to use the dreaded closer-by-committee approach.  MacDougal will be the favorite in the committee, but his peripherals suggest he is due for a big fall.  Next in line would be Joe Beimel.  Beimel is only 1 for 5 in save opportunities this year, so he is a risky option as well and probably best left for NL-only fantasy leagues.  Sean Burnett is a sleeper here and has pitched extremely well in his short time with the Nationals.

9.  LaTroy Hawkins (Astros) – 2.36 era, 1.24 whip, 11 holds, 10 saves

Houston Astros closer Jose Valverde has been great so far in the second half.  LaTroy Hawkins filled in quite well for Valverde while he was on the D.L. and would do so again if Valverde were to succumb to injury (which is always a possibility).  If the Astros were to fall out of the race there is the potential for Valverde to be traded as he is a free agent.  Hawkins is also a free agent which is why he is toward the bottom of the list.

10.  Ryan Madson (Phillies) – 3.10 era, 1.20 whip, 16 holds, 4 saves

Ryan Madson was one of the best set-up men in baseball for the Philladelphia Phillies in the first half.  When current closer Brad Lidge went on the D.L., Madson got a chance to see if his 8th inning skills would translate to the 9th inning.  Madson learned quickly that closing games is not easy and he struggled mightily in the role.  Brad Lidge is back closing games for the Phillies and Madson is settling back into his set-up role here in the second half.  However, Lidge is still proving to be awfully hittable and although he says his knee is 100% there is always the possibility of another trip to the D.L.  All of this makes Ryan Madson a sleeper closer and his numbers will not hurt you if you’re looking for help in ERA, WHIP, and K/9.